Predictions – at a time when any projections have a high probability of being wrong!

One of our Corporate Finance partners Andy Killick shares his thoughts and predictions for what remains of 2020

1. Insolvency rules/laws will be relaxed and possibly new procedures will be introduced that in effect limit the number of businesses that go into a formal insolvency
2. More companies will go bust in the second half of the year than in the first
3. Many people will forget about Brexit for a number of months….and then realise the potential impact of it as we head towards the end of the year
4. Boris will want to stick to the 31 December transition deadline, and although he will have the best reason ever to extend it – he probably won’t, but many issues will be left to be resolved until afterwards
5. Administration regulations will be eased in ways such as delaying filing deadlines/timescales for audits and the audit thresholds may be increased further to reduce the number of companies needing an audit
6. Virus testing will become the norm and essential to receive many services, standard visits such as going to the dentist will be significantly changed
7. The Press will be tempted to push for an increase in the tax charge on those businesses that have benefited from grants (rather than loans) and a wealth tax
8. Focus on tax rates will be misplaced for many UK-only businesses, as they will be primarily concerned with generating business – rather than any related tax charge, but Tech taxes will come in
9. VAT (as the fairest tax) should be increased as it does not apply to basics such as food, rent, medicines etc) and may increase – but not to 33.3% seen in the 1970s
10. Interest rates will remain very low for a considerable period of time
11. Alcohol use and exercise will continue to increase post lockdown
12. The young will blame older generations for their plight
13. Western Society has become soft and people will complain about six weeks of lockdown, just at a time that we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the end of six years of war in Europe ……. after which rationing continued for another nine years
14. The increase in Global wealth over the last decade will underpin Stock Markets around the world and limit the downside – which will be far less than in the 2008-2009 financial crisis
15. General volatility across a wide range of sectors will be replaced with overall more moderate changes, but with more extremes for individual companies
16. The financial impact for many surviving private companies won’t be fully visible until mid/late 2021 onwards, when accounts covering the period from March 2020 are likely to be released.
17. Trump will continue to tweet and will beat his bleach recommendation!